The political landscape of Delhi is about to undergo a significant transformation with the approaching 2025 Assembly elections. After a 27-year absence from the helm of the city, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be gearing up for a comeback. The recent exit polls have generated quite a lot of discussion in this regard, pointing towards a thumping win of the BJP over the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) headed by Arvind Kejriwal.
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The Delhi elections in 2025 are being watched closely; such elections can reshuffle the city’s political play. If the exit polls actually come out to be correct, it shall mark the first time since 1998 that the BJP will win over the city of Delhi and break a 27-year jinx. But how did we get here? Let us get into the details.
Exit Poll Predictions: A Clean Sweep for BJP?
Multiple exit polls have predicted a win for the BJP. For example, the P-Marq exit poll predicts that the BJP will win between 39 to 49 seats, while the AAP is likely to win 21 to 31 seats, and the Congress may win up to one seat. Chanakya Strategies also predicts that the BJP will win 39 to 44 seats, while the AAP is likely to win 25 to 28 seats.
These projections, if materialized, would be a historic shift in the governance of Delhi, as the BJP would end its nearly three-decade-long hiatus from power in the national capital. This is important because Delhi has been ruled by either the Congress (1998-2013) or the AAP (2013-present) for the last 25 years, making BJP’s return a historic event.
Historical Background: BJP’s Journey in Delhi Politics
BJP last made chief minister of Delhi in the years 1998, when the then Chief Minister Sushma Swaraj was in office for a short tenure. Since then, the Delhi politics was a complete Congress game which Sheila Dikshit led as Chief Minister and then AAP in 2013 that took the capital with its anti-corruption theme and promise of transparent governance, helped AAP to capture Delhi assembly consecutively in the years 2015 and 2020.
However, the story of 2025 is different. The continuous efforts by the BJP to reclaim power in Delhi appear to be sounding right with the masses, as the exit polls suggest. Despite having a strong hold on national politics and winning all the seven Lok Sabha seats of the national capital during the general elections of 2014, 2019, and 2024, BJP seems to fail to translate this advantage into an Assembly win. It may happen this time.
Factors That will Lead to BJPs Assumed Victory
- Anti-incumbency wave against AAP
The AAP will face antiincumbency effects as they rule Delhi for more than nine years. While other initiatives, which include free electricity, water and better public school, the issues of corruption in the government circle and inefficient implementation of governance system have badly impaired the reputation built by AAP, especially when lately, there happened a liquor scam and some Ministers of the state were caught through arrest. - Modi Factor & BJP’s Strong Campaigning
BJP’s campaign largely capitalized on the public charm of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It strategically fielded Union Ministers, MPs, and Chief Ministers of BJP-ruled states to aggressively campaign in Delhi. They promised better infrastructure, improved law and order, and a halt to alleged corruption in AAP’s administration.
- Public Sentiment & Voter Demographics
There is a perceptible change in the mood of the voters, with parts of the population seeking a change after ten years of AAP rule. Surveys indicate that the 18-25 age group is increasingly voting for BJP, while the 26-35 age group is divided between AAP and BJP. Women voters, who were the core constituency of AAP in the previous elections, are seen to be shifting towards BJP this time.
- The Congress Factor
Congress was once a major player in Delhi politics, but it has failed to regain itself. The party that ruled the city for 15 years under Sheila Dikshit has now become almost irrelevant. In 2020, it could not even win a single seat. In 2025, it is facing a similar situation. This helps BJP as anti-AAP votes are consolidating in its favor.
AAP Reaction: A Struggle to Stay Relevant?
The AAP has reacted to these exit polls with skepticism. Party leaders have said that exit polls had underestimated the party’s performance in earlier elections. For example, in 2020, according to exit polls, the contest was supposed to be closer, but the AAP won a thumping victory, winning all 62 of the 70 seats.
AAP spokesperson Priyanka Kakkar said, “We have always formed the government with a clear majority, and this time will be no different.” She also claimed that its welfare schemes remained relevant to voters, such as free healthcare at Mohalla Clinics and improved school education.
Furthermore, AAP leaders accused the BJP of poaching some of their candidates, which the BJP has termed baseless.
Consequences of BJP’s Victory
If BJP wins, it will mark a huge dent in the otherwise thriving state of national politics within Delhi. Something like this:
- Kejriwal Politics: AAP faces defeat, an important blow might be dealt at Arvind Kejriwal’s rising political stature.
- BJP Nationwide Consolidation: A Delhi win would complete the consolidation further in Indian polity, after a series of state victories at its hands.
- Policy Changes: BJP has promised a different governance model for Delhi, with emphasis on law and order, infrastructure, and a corruption-free administration.
Counting the Last Droplets
Exit polls do give an idea of what might happen, but the final outcome will be known when the votes are finally counted on 8th February, 2025. Elected politicians as well as common citizens breathe with bated breath on that fateful day, which will decide whom to govern Delhi.
In short, the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections will be a momentous juncture in the city’s political history. The BJP is set to return after 27 years, marking a dynamic change in democratic processes and the constantly changing preferences of the electorate. When the city is on the cusp of a possible transformation, the forthcoming results will certainly leave a long-lasting impact on its governance and development.
